SHOWING US ABOUT THE IMPACT OF THIS DEADLY VIRUS. WE HAVE A MODEL THAT TRACKS PEOPLE. MIKE THIS IS THE LEAD RESEARCHER FOR NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY STUDY THAT FOUND HIDDEN OUTBREAKS OF THE CORONAVIRUS, HITTING IN EARLY FEBRUARY IN THE U.S., WEEKS BEFORE ANYONE KNEW IT WAS HERE. MOST OF THOSE CHAINS OF TRANSMISSION WENT UNDETECTED THAT WAS FEBRUARY. PEOPLE HAD SEVERE SYMPTOMS, BUT MANY PEOPLE DON’T HAVE SEVERE SYSTEM — SYMPTOMS. MIKE HE SAYS IT SPREAD UNDER THE RADAR. ON MARCH 1, ONLY 23 CASES IN FIVE BIG CITIES, THE ACTUAL COUNT WAS 10,700 INFECTIONS IN NEW YORK, 9300 SA FRANCISCO, 3300 CHICAGO, 2300 CAS IN SEATTLE AND BOSTON FOR NEARLY 28,000 CASES IN ALL, ACCORDING TO NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY IN BOSTON. THE STUDY PROJECTS 299,000 DEATHS NATIONWIDE BY MAY 18 WITH NO SAFETY MEASURES. BUT EVEN IF AMERICAN OBEY STAY-AT-HOME ORDERS, NEARLY 70,000 WILL DIE BY THAT DATE, ACCORDING TO THE NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY MODEL. WE REMAIN OPTIMISTIC WE WILL GET THROUGH THIS. MIKE: THE CORONAVIRUS WAS THE MAIN TOPIC OF THIS UC DAVIS WEBINAR TODAY. INVESTIGATORS WANT TO SEE MORE TESTING. THAT’S ACCORDING TO THIS INFECTIOUS DISEASE EXPERT. THAT IS A LOT OF CASES THAT WE WERE MISSING. WE KNEW THAT THERE WERE MILDER CASES THAT WERE NOT IN THE HOSPITAL OR WERE A SYMPTOMATICALLY WE WERE MISSING. THAT IS WHAT SOME OF THESE MODELS NOW SHOW. MIKE: SOCIA DISTANCING, DR. BLUMBERG SAYS, HAS MADE IT DISTANCING SLOWING THE DISEASE. SEVERE SOCIAL DISTANCING RECOMMENDATIONS AND ALL THE RESTRICTIONS WE HAVE HAD, THE BUSINESS THAT HAVE NEEDED TO BE CLOSED, ALL THESE VEER SACRIFICES EVERYBODY HAS BEEN MAKING, THAT HAS ENDED UP SAVING LIVES.

Study: Hidden outbreaks of coronavirus hit U.S. in early February

Nearly 28,000 infections in 5 cities

A newly released study from Northeastern University in Boston shows the novel coronavirus hit the United States harder — and much earlier — than anyone knew. “We have a model that tracks people, individuals,” said Alessando Vespignani, the lead researcher for Northeastern University in Boston. “We integrate data from air transportation and other traveling patterns so we can follow the trajectory of the epidemic from China and other countries in the United States.”The study found hidden outbreaks of the coronavirus hitting American shores in early February — weeks before anyone knew it was here. | MORE | See the study hereThe study was published in Science Magazine this week.The researchers are using the model and their study to update the projected number of COVID-19 cases online through interactive maps.“Most of these chains of transmission were undetected,” Vespignani said. “It was February, so flu season, so many people didn’t have serious symptoms.”“The disease spread under the radar,” he added. On March 1, for example, when only 23 coronavirus cases were confirmed in five big cities, the actual count of infections is projected to have been: 10,700 in New York 9,300 in San Francisco 3,300 in Chicago 2,300 cases in Seattle 2,300 in BostonThat adds up to nearly 28,000 cases in all, according to Northeastern University.The study also projects:299,00 deaths nationwide by May 18 with no safety measures in place69,975 deaths by the same date if Americans obey stay-at-home ordersHealth experts seem to agree that more testing is needed. Infectious disease expert Dr. Dean Blumberg from UC Davis Children’s Hospital in Sacramento said, “That’s a lot of cases that we were missing.”“We knew that there were milder cases that weren’t in the hospital,” he explained. “Cases that were even asymptomatic that we were missing. And that’s what some of these models were able to show.”Social distancing, Blumberg said, had made a difference in slowing down the spread of the disease. “These severe social distancing recommendations that we’ve had and all the restrictions that we’ve had— all the businesses that have needed to be closed, all these severe sacrifices that everybody has been making — that’s ended up saving lives,” Blumberg said. “And when we ease up on these social distancing measures, it’s important to do that at the right time and it’s important to do them very gradually,” Blumberg added. “We don’t want a big rebound.”

SACRAMENTO, Calif. —

A newly released study from Northeastern University in Boston shows the novel coronavirus hit the United States harder — and much earlier — than anyone knew.

“We have a model that tracks people, individuals,” said Alessando Vespignani, the lead researcher for Northeastern University in Boston. “We integrate data from air transportation and other traveling patterns so we can follow the trajectory of the epidemic from China and other countries in the United States.”

The study found hidden outbreaks of the coronavirus hitting American shores in early February — weeks before anyone knew it was here.

| MORE | See the study here

The study was published in Science Magazine this week.

The researchers are using the model and their study to update the projected number of COVID-19 cases online through interactive maps.

“Most of these chains of transmission were undetected,” Vespignani said. “It was February, so flu season, so many people didn’t have serious symptoms.”

“The disease spread under the radar,” he added.

On March 1, for example, when only 23 coronavirus cases were confirmed in five big cities, the actual count of infections is projected to have been:

  • 10,700 in New York
  • 9,300 in San Francisco
  • 3,300 in Chicago
  • 2,300 cases in Seattle
  • 2,300 in Boston

That adds up to nearly 28,000 cases in all, according to Northeastern University.

The study also projects:

  • 299,00 deaths nationwide by May 18 with no safety measures in place
  • 69,975 deaths by the same date if Americans obey stay-at-home orders

Health experts seem to agree that more testing is needed. Infectious disease expert Dr. Dean Blumberg from UC Davis Children’s Hospital in Sacramento said, “That’s a lot of cases that we were missing.”

“We knew that there were milder cases that weren’t in the hospital,” he explained. “Cases that were even asymptomatic that we were missing. And that’s what some of these models were able to show.”

Social distancing, Blumberg said, had made a difference in slowing down the spread of the disease.

“These severe social distancing recommendations that we’ve had and all the restrictions that we’ve had— all the businesses that have needed to be closed, all these severe sacrifices that everybody has been making — that’s ended up saving lives,” Blumberg said.

“And when we ease up on these social distancing measures, it’s important to do that at the right time and it’s important to do them very gradually,” Blumberg added. “We don’t want a big rebound.”

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